The second round of peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul on Monday ended in less than an hour after a massive Ukrainian drone hit Russia’s nuclear-capable bombers a day earlier.
The talks had already begun nearly two hours later than scheduled, with no explanation of the delay.
Although the atmosphere was subdued and dialogue brief, the talks did yield an agreement to conduct a new prisoner exchange and Ukraine said another round of talks was on the agenda.
In Russia, before the talks began, angry war bloggers had called on Moscow to deliver a fearsome retaliatory blow against Kyiv after Ukraine on Sunday launched one of its most ambitious attacks of the war, targeting Russian nuclear-capable long-range bombers in Siberia and elsewhere.
Ukraine and Russia have issued starkly different assessments of the damage done to Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers — a key element in its nuclear arsenal — but it was clear from publicly available satellite imagery that Moscow had suffered some serious equipment losses.
“The eyes of the whole world are focused on the contacts here,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan had told the Russian and Ukrainian delegations at the start of talks as they faced off against each other on opposite sides of the room in the sumptuous Ciragan Palace by the Bosphorus.
He said the aim of the meeting was to evaluate the conditions for a ceasefire, to discuss a possible meeting between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents, and to look at more prisoner exchange opportunities.
Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov, who headed Kyiv’s delegation, announced after the talks that a new prisoner exchange had been agreed to follow up on the biggest prisoner swap of the war brokered at the last round of talks.
He said the new exchange would focus on those severely injured in the war and on young people.
Umerov also said that Moscow had handed its own draft peace accord to Ukraine and that Kyiv, which has drawn up its own version, would review the Russian document.
Ukraine has proposed holding more talks before the end of June, but believes that only a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin can resolve the many issues of contention, Umerov said.
Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said Kyiv’s delegation had handed over a list of children it said had been deported to Russia and which it wanted back. Moscow says such children were moved in order to protect them from fighting.
The two sides had been expected on Monday to discuss their respective and wildly different ideas for what a full ceasefire and a longer term path to peace should look like amid pressure from US President Donald Trump, who has said the US could abandon its role as a mediator if there is no progress.
But Umerov said Kyiv had been unable to react to Russia’s proposals for peace because it had only seen them on Monday.
Low expectations
While both countries, for different reasons, are keen to keep Trump engaged in the peace process, expectations of a breakthrough on Monday had been low.
Ukraine regards Russia’s approach to date as an attempt to force it to capitulate — something Kyiv says it will never do — while Moscow, which advanced on the battlefield in May at its fastest rate in six months, says Kyiv should submit to peace on Russian terms or face losing more territory.
Putin set out his opening terms for an immediate end to the war last June: Ukraine must drop its NATO ambitions and withdraw all of its troops from the entirety of the territory of four Ukrainian regions claimed and mostly controlled by Russia.
According to a proposed roadmap drawn up by Ukraine, a copy of which was seen by Reuters, Kyiv wants no restrictions on its military strength after any peace deal, no international recognition of Russian sovereignty over parts of Ukraine taken by Moscow’s forces, and wants reparations.
Russia currently controls just under one-fifth of Ukraine, or about 113,100 square km, about the same size as the US state of Ohio.
Putin sent tens of thousands of troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after eight years of fighting in eastern Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces.
The United States says over 1.2 million people have been killed and injured in the war since 2022.
Trump has called Putin “crazy” and berated Zelenskiy in public in the Oval Office, but the US president has also said he thinks peace is achievable and that if Putin delays then he could impose tough sanctions on Russia.
