Just because talks won't work doesn't mean people should not try.
Almost a year after the last doomed attempt at political dialogue, the government and opposition are once again making the right noises. As the year draws to a close, there's a perceptible softening of rhetoric, relatively speaking of course, between the two sides. Something is surely afoot.
Excited? Errr… not really.
Don't get me wrong. The talks will likely happen at some level. Some people will agree on a vague agenda, sit across a table, generate good photo-ops, perhaps even a temporary feel-good factor, a little relief here and there might be thrown in for good measure, and maybe, just maybe, a joint presser or two could also materialise. But for all the good that this is worth, talks will not lead to anything substantive.
Or could they defy the odds?
Let's look at the odds, then. The government has offered dialogue, and yet this is not the first time it has done so. When Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif told his cabinet colleagues this week that he would welcome talks with the opposition, he merely repeated what he had done so numerous times previously. Is he more serious this time? Possibly. Does he feel the timing is more suitable now? Probably. But is he willing to offer something to the opposition that he has not done so yet? Unlikely.
In fact, very definitely unlikely. Come to think of it, it makes sweet sense from the government's point of view. Why would you offer concessions when you have no pressing reason to do so? No pressure, no compulsion, no urgency. The government is sitting pretty. The PM is in lockstep with the establishment; he is hosting and visiting important regional and global leaders; his government just notched up a significant economic success by privatising PIA, there are no disturbances on the streets, and it is ending the year on a high note of military success, diplomatic achievements and economic stability (though lack of growth is, well, a growing concern).
The only incentive for the government to engage with the PTI is to address the issue of political instability. It would naturally like for the system that it governs to have a semblance of normalcy. Please note however that this desired normalcy is of a perceptional nature, and not the physical kind. That kind is already in effect. Yes, when streets are as quiet as the media, and when bazaars are as unagitated as the courts, then the biggest worry for the government is not how to enforce normalcy, but how to project it.
If PTI can agree to play by some rules — no that's not an oxymoron — and if the present setup agrees to provide substantive relief to its beleaguered leaders, then the government could, and probably would, want to make talks sincere and successful.
But wait. There's an error in this logic.
The government would never want anything that could lead to the government not remaining the government. That's pretty straightforward. So, it figures that it would only talk on terms that strengthen it, not weaken it. Relief for PTI leaders — especially Imran Khan — does little to consolidate the government's chances of remaining the government. The only logic that can compel the government to be serious about talks is the one that paints a scenario in which PTI plays by the rules while the government offers little in return. For the government, it makes zero sense to ease the pressure off PTI.
Not that PTI is helping ease pressure off itself.
Truth be told, PTI has little clue what PTI wants. There's the school of thought that desires mending fences with the hybrid power brokers (Barrister Gohar please raise your hand); then there's the other school of thought that favours waging political war that takes no prisoners (yes, that's you CM Sohail Afridi); and finally there's the outsider group that struggles to project gravitas in the absence of electoral strength (Achakzai et al) knowing its efforts can be (and probably will be) vetoed by Khan in the blink of an eye. Khan's sisters, who appear standing taller than the rest of the party's motley crew, can pull inherited rank, but not much more.
Then there's the elephant in the room — or, in fact, in Adiyala. If it comes to talking or fighting, we all know where he stands.
If PTI can't get Khan released, or the Kot Lakhpat leaders paroled, or the May 9 process eased, or hundreds of FIR's quashed, or the next elections' timing negotiated – if it cannot get any of these things, then what does talking to the government serve? The bitter reality — and PTI knows this — is that if it enters a dialogue with the government today, it will be negotiating from a position of weakness. The only way that PTI can get something concrete from such talks is if it lowers its expectations, scale back its rhetoric and readies itself to move away from maximalist positions. There are many in PTI who feel even small wins are better than no wins. Mehmood Achakzai and his Tehreek Tahafuz Aeen Pakistan, the TTAP, may agree. Good luck convincing Khan of this.
In the bitterly polarised era that we live in, talks between the government and the opposition make total sense. Though, in fact, they make zero sense. When everyone wants something, and no one hopes to gain anything from it, the outcome is usually fairly obvious.
On this cheerful note, Happy New Year!
