Sugar, flour drive increase despite falling vegetable prices; weekly SPI edges up 0.24%
KARACHI:
Pakistan’s weekly inflation, measured by the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI), recorded a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3.75% for the week ended December 18, 2025, according to the latest report released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS).
The SPI, which tracks price movements of 51 essential commodities across 50 markets in 17 cities, provides a snapshot of short-term inflationary pressures affecting households nationwide.
On a week-on-week (WoW) basis, the SPI rose by a modest 0.24%, reflecting mixed trends in essential goods. Significant upward pressure came from food items, with chicken prices surging 11.11%, powdered chilli climbing 3.08%, and eggs increasing 2.88%.
Other notable increases were observed in shirting (1.64%), firewood (0.86%), cooking oil (0.32%), and energy savers (0.31%). These price rises were partially offset by sharp declines in several key commodities: tomatoes fell 11.38%, potatoes dropped 8.39%, sugar declined 4.52%, onions eased 3.52% and high-speed diesel decreased 5%.
Out of the 51 items monitored, prices of 17 items rose, 14 decreased, and 20 remained unchanged.
The YoY comparison reveals persistent inflationary pressures in certain essentials. Gas charges for the first quarter soared 29.85%, followed by sugar (24.10%), wheat flour (22.52%), chicken (20.78%), beef (13.66%), gur (13.43%), and firewood (12.08%).
In contrast, substantial relief was observed in vegetable prices, with tomatoes plummeting 66.49%, potatoes down 45.31%, garlic falling 39.10%, onions declining 29.77%, and pulse gram dropping 28.95%. Lipton tea prices eased significantly by 17.79%.
The inflation impact varied across income groups. The highest weekly increase of 0.28% was recorded in the top expenditure quintile (households spending above Rs44,175 per month), while the lowest quintile saw only a 0.07% rise.
Year-on-year, the middle-income group (Q3) faced the steepest inflation at 3.79%, compared to 2.39% for the poorest quintile.
The combined SPI index stood at 336.53 points, up from 335.73 in the previous week. Data shows that while weekly inflation remains contained, elevated YoY energy-related charges and staple food prices continue to strain household budgets, particularly for middle and lower middle-income families.
Seasonal declines in perishable items such as vegetables and recent adjustments in fuel prices have provided some respite, helping keep overall short-term inflation moderate as the year draws to a close.
