Climate change continues to be a serious threat to Pakistan, and the latest warning from NDMA only reinforces how urgent the situation has become. With projections suggesting 22-26 per cent above-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon, the country is once again staring at the possibility of large-scale displacement, economic losses and avoidable tragedy. Each year, weather extremes grow sharper, yet our policies and infrastructure struggle to keep pace.
The sheer scale of vulnerability is evident from this year's monsoon alone, during which 3.1 million people had to be relocated to safe areas. Such staggering numbers are less a sign of preparedness and more an indictment of how deeply exposed communities remain. The NDMA's emphasis on improved disaster management — from regulating river flows to restricting tourism during the high-risk months of June and July — is an understanding that passive reactions are no longer enough.
Pakistan's early warning system, which alerts provinces six to eight months in advance, is a critical tool. But its value depends entirely on whether provincial authorities act on these alerts. Weekly advisories must translate this into practical steps: reinforcing embankments, clearing drains, relocating settlements from riverbeds and ensuring that relief supplies and rescue teams are in place before the first cloudburst hits.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's directive for accelerated implementation of the Ministry of Climate Change's short-term plan is a necessary push, but it will mean little without consistent follow-through. Likewise, convening the National Water Council desperately needs national-level planning on water management to avert the disastrous flooding patterns witnessed in 2010 and 2022.
What however remains uncertain is whether Pakistan will finally act with the seriousness the crisis demands. Above-normal rainfall does not have to lead to above-normal disaster, but only if we prepare timely and decisively.
