Another geopolitical storm

President Trump asked his point man, Steve Witkoff, “Why, under this pressure, with the amount of sea power and naval power over there, why haven’t they come to us and said, ‘We profess we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we are prepared to do’? And yet it’s sort of hard to get them to that place.” The ‘they’ in this conversation is, of course, Iran. If the underlying sentiment is any indicator, the chances are that a real war against and around Iran may well be averted.

Only, the Iranians need to play it sensibly. Give Trump a face-saver of sorts and help him retain his prestige. Even more importantly, save Iran from devastation triggered by an injured ego. In which case, Iran alone will suffer, perhaps badly; the US and Trump will barely save pride, but Israel will relish the opportunity and the carte blanche in wreaking as much havoc as it can on Iran, and push the US to do the same.

Iran, of course, will respond, but to a certain extent. It can play the regionalisation of the conflict as a card and push the regimes around to save themselves from Iranian reprisals by forcing the US to retract from what would be another unnecessary war. But will injured pride listen, or to what extent will it go to save its esteem? These unknowns are a fast-slipping slope, rendering the region’s geopolitics highly precarious. This ties into the equation a continuing interplay of interests between nations of the Middle East, including Israel, the US and nations surrounding Iran in West Asia. That includes Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey. Turkey lies at the edge of what is West Asia and will most likely escape the entanglement, but the rest will slowly slide into the eye of the gathering storm.

Here is why? Assume Iran is the crown jewel in this impending war. The goals are obvious to those who really want this war: replace the regime; devastate Iran to the point of irrecoverable political and economic damage; trigger a popular uprising based on deteriorated internal situation resulting in upheavals; eliminate Iran as a sponsor of proxies which hold Israel and its security ransom. These are the objectives which Israel under Netanyahu will vie for. It would also like the war to go on for as long as possible, with the help of the US, to achieve most, if not all, aims that Netanyahu would like to attain. At the least, it will eliminate Iran as a threat for the foreseeable future when its foundational structure will be so wrecked.

Trump wants out but is caught in what is called ‘the commitment trap’. He has built the pressure with so much fanfare and rhetoric, and assembled a ‘flotilla’, an armada, on Iran’s coast of such strength and capability, that walking away and dialing down without any gains to show will be an outright defeat for Trump and the US. Vietnam, Afghanistan and Korea already rankle hard in America’s collective memory. Another such withdrawal, even after the projection/application of the world’s most superior power, would imply a military defeat. Trump holds a watered-down version of demands from Iran: no nuclear capability; give up the missile force; stop sponsoring proxies; and do not prosecute anti-regime protestors. Which of these is achievable is moot, but none justifies the application of force. Unless a regime change occurs because of the military action, which can be the veritable feather in Trump’s cap. But he is ready to settle for far less – ‘…profess we don’t want a weapon, so here’s what we’re prepared to do.’

Iran, too, is tied to the same trap with loud rhetoric matching that of Trump. Trump’s demands are maximalist and relatively civil compared to Netanyahu’s goals for the war. Netanyahu would prefer to achieve his objectives through a kinetic war. Trump wants to get to his aims with only the projection of force, without fighting a war. This much Iran will get. The crowning glory for both is a regime change either directly via a war or under the threat of a war, or because of an uprising enabled by a war. Except that in such a robustly instituted system of the Ayatollahs, there is little scope for such capitulation. Iranians as a civilisation are too old and too proud to throw in the towel. The US should save some pride; Iran should not tempt fate; and Israel should be banished to rue its satanic ways. The array of options is wide enough to coin a face-saver for all.

If not, the whirlpool is fierce enough to pull all in. As warned by Iran, all American bases and forces in the region will be targeted. This will impose its own dynamics on how the Gulf states respond or react. Another force-in-being for hire by those intending to harm Iran exists in Afghanistan as a conglomerate of terror outfits. The Taliban have fallen back on the business of terror as their saviour in the absence of a settled economy or governing environment. They have, as was under Mullah Omar, permitted and gathered militant groups, adding to those which were already indigenous to their militant make-up. These include the TTP, the BLA, the ISKP, the ETIM, the IMU, Al Qaeda remnants, and those that became unoccupied after Syria. Some research counts the number to over twenty thousand cumulatively. Though these should be far greater when augmented by the Afghan Taliban themselves, now unoccupied and looking for money, and the stream of fresh recruits that the TTP continues to receive from Pakistan’s tribal regions and Afghan refugee camps. That makes another formidable ‘armada on the ground’ ready to offer its services at the right price.

The amount of money needed to keep this franchise alive isn’t coming from India alone. Mossad is as active in enabling resources and keeping groups like ISKP alive. As indeed those who know can buy the services when needed. India sponsors and uses them at will against Pakistan; ditto Israel, which may put them to greater use against Iran and Pakistan; Russia and the US remain silent observers, knowing the resource is available to anyone with the right money.

Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and China are already getting the heat for their geographical misfortune. While it will only be a matter of time before these forces of Terror Inc will be directed into Iran in synch with the main Israel/US offensive against Iran. The Taliban regime shelters the force and sustains them with lavish handouts enabled through outside funding. It is a redux of Afghanistan between 1998 and 2001. Only worse. What may befall the world at large after such opportune nurturing of malice can only be odious. Far worse than 9/11 ever was. It is déjà vu all over again. The enveloping eddy in the Persian Gulf will suck all within its range. It can only be calamitous for Pakistan.