LAHORE: The federal government’s decision to import 0.5 million tons of sugar is a positive move as far as attempting to arrest skyrocketing price of sweetener in the domestic market, but the move itself may not yield desired results due to multiple factors.
To protect consumer interests, the government must guarantee the prompt delivery of the imported shipment to maintain price stability keeping in view improved global sugar production outlook, implement stringent regulations on domestic trade, and broaden imports beyond the public sector.
The recent positive outlook for global sugar production stem from forecasts of increased output from the two largest producers. As per the latest estimates, concerns regarding reduced sugar production in Brazil due to severe weather have diminished, coupled with a favourable crop assessment supported by above-average monsoon rainfall in India, which has lately caused a decline in global white sugar prices.
If trend of decent world sugar production continues, Pakistan may be able to import commodity at relatively lower prices. However, some challenges still remain.
It is learnt that the Centre is urging provinces to move forward with imports, yet the provinces are refusing to accept the daunting task given the scarcity of funds. “The main challenges are related to dearth of funding and foreign exchange,” said a market insider. Dealers have also been in contact with the authorities for assisting in augmenting sugar supplies.
The government is also actively pursuing approval from the International Monetary Fund to eliminate taxes and duties on import of sugar with a view to reduce price of commodity substantially.
Insiders have urged the government to allow import of sugar beyond public sector as it would trigger healthy competition. To smoothen sugar imports, government should broaden the import window to all, they stressed.
Given the coercive strategy in handling the domestic sugar trade, it is less likely that importers will supply adequate amount from abroad. To restore confidence of stakeholders of sugar supply chain, the government should proactively engage them and ensure import of ample quantity of sugar.
For this purpose, import of raw sugar too is not a bad idea as it will enable sugar industry to manufacture more sweetener with a view to bridge gap in domestic demand and supply as well as opting for earning foreign exchange reserves by exporting the commodity.
Moreover, the federal government, in coordination with the provinces, should reassess sugar stock position and take administrative measures accordingly. As per an estimate, sizeable stock of sugar exists in the country for meeting domestic deeds through November 2025. Imports in the emerging scenario are necessary for filling gaps in supply chain as well as building the strategic reserves, but stock taking of sugar reserves in hand too needs to be done thoroughly.
Latest projections indicate that country’s current sugar reserves are adequate to meet domestic consumption demands until at least late November 2025. This reassuring assessment is based on an analysis of sugar stock availability during the recently concluded Crushing Season 2024-25, highlighting a robust supply chain capable of sustaining the nation’s sweet tooth for the coming months.
As of June 15, 2025, the closing stock of sugar stood at a substantial 2,791,271 tons. This figure serves as the foundation for the optimistic outlook on future availability. To gauge the sufficiency of this stock, two different scenarios for average monthly consumption were considered.
Firstly, utilising the average monthly consumption rate from the Crushing Season 2023-24, which was recorded at 533,000 metric tons, the available sugar stock is projected to last until November 22, 2025. This calculation provides a benchmark based on historical consumption patterns.
Secondly, a more current assessment based on the average monthly consumption for the ongoing Crushing Season 2024-25 (December 2024 to June 15, 2025) reveals a slightly higher consumption rate of 535,016 metric tons. Even with this marginally increased consumption, the existing sugar reserves are estimated to be sufficient until November 21, 2025.
The consistency across both projections offers a clear indication that, despite minor fluctuations in monthly consumption rates, country’s sugar reserves are well-positioned to cover domestic requirements for the foreseeable future, extending comfortably into the final quarter of the year. This stability is only ensured with government regulate sugar trade strictly along with timely import of the sweetener in order to maintaining market equilibrium.
