ISLAMABAD:
Pakistanis are expected to get some respite as petroleum product prices are projected to drop by up to Rs3.13 per litre in the first half of September 2025.
According to industry sources, the ex-depot sale price of petrol (motor gasoline) is expected to dip by Rs0.61 per litre, from Rs264.61 on August 16 to Rs264.00 per litre from September 1.
High-speed diesel (HSD), the country’s most widely consumed fuel, is forecast to fall by Rs3.13 per litre to Rs269.86. Kerosene, largely used in rural households and for heating, is projected to decline by Rs1.78 per litre to Rs176.70, while light diesel oil (LDO) is expected to drop by Rs2.61 per litre to Rs159.55.
The estimated ex-refinery price adjustments show a similar downward trend. Petrol is likely to decrease by Rs0.43 per litre, HSD by Rs2.87 per litre, kerosene by Rs1.57 per litre, and LDO by Rs2.61 per litre. These changes are linked to global oil price movements, import premiums, and refining margins.
In percentage terms, the projected decline is modest. Petrol may fall by 0.2%, diesel by 1.1%, kerosene by 0.9%, and light diesel oil by 1.6%. The smaller reduction in petrol compared to diesel reflects varying international pricing trends and import costs.
However, the estimates do not account for foreign exchange losses, which are usually booked by oil marketing companies and passed on to consumers. A note accompanying the estimates clarified: “Exchange loss/gain not included.” This leaves room for significant adjustments depending on the rupee-dollar exchange rate, which has remained volatile in recent weeks.
The projected relief comes amid international crude oil benchmarks, where motor gasoline premiums are calculated at $6.37 per barrel and HSD premiums at $3.20 per barrel. Domestic pricing also incorporates the Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM), currently Rs8.05 per litre for petrol and Rs6.20 per litre for diesel, along with the Petroleum Levy (PL) and the Climate Support Levy (CSL), a component of the PL charged on petroleum products that directly impacts their final cost.
The Ministry of Finance usually announces final fortnightly adjustments in fuel prices after reviewing the working paper prepared by the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA). With one trading day of international Platts benchmarks still remaining before the cut-off, the estimates may change slightly. The omission of exchange rate adjustments also means that a depreciation of the rupee against the dollar could wipe out the projected relief, while an appreciation could increase it.
